[olug] OT: evil poll

[T. J. Brumfield]

Statistics are a very complicated field.  Actuaries don't base
insurance policies on the fact that the average life span is 75 years.
 They look at several conditions that apply to you specifically to get
a better idea of how long you might live.

It is a bit of an oversimplification to say that McCain statistically
is going to die soon, because it overlooks certain factors.

-- T. J.

On Thu, Oct 30, 2008 at 10:01 AM, Christopher Cashell
<topher-olug at zyp.org> wrote:
> I hadn't planned on responding to any e-mails here, regardless of
> whether they were replies to mine or not, just because politics is
> guaranteed to get us caught up in an argument, but since this point is
> somewhat separate from the politics, I'll address this point.
>
> On Wed, Oct 29, 2008 at 9:58 PM, T. J. Brumfield <enderandrew at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Wed, Oct 29, 2008 at 9:52 PM, Christopher Cashell
>> <topher-olug at zyp.org> wrote:
>>> The first was McCain's appointment of Sarah Palin.  John McCain is 72
>>> years old, and the average life expectancy in the US for men is about
>>> 75 years.  That means that statistically, McCain will most likely die
>>> before he finishes his term as president, if elected.  And I think
>>
>> If you don't like Palin, you don't like Palin.  I can certainly
>> understand that.  However I don't think it is fair to speculate he is
>> going to die of old age.  Most people retire, and then lead inactive
>> lives at his age.  Most people aren't rich, and don't have excellent
>> health care.  McCain is active, is rich, has excellent heath care, and
>> has a healthy, active mother in her late 90's.
>
> I'm not speaking above to specific details about McCain, I'm going
> 100% based on statistical probability.  The fact is that the average
> lifespan (average across all males) in the US is approximately 75
> years of age.  That means that statistically, based on the average
> lifespan for males in the US, McCain is more likely to die before the
> end of his term than he is to complete his term.
>
> Now, if you do want to get into specifics, you can argue that he is
> active for his age, rich, can afford excellent health care, etc.  But
> you also have to consider that he's 72 years old (note, we have never
> had a first term president elected that was as old as McCain is), he
> has had 4 bouts with skin cancer, and has had some rough experiences
> in his life.  I'm considering all of it something of a wash, and
> falling back on simple statistical probability.
>
>> Active people tend to live longer.  It isn't a given he is just going
>> to up and die in the next four years.
>
> I never said it was a given.  Just that it was statistically probable.
>  Regardless, the risk is very much real enough to concern (scare) me.
>
>> -- T, J,
>
> --
> Christopher
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